Mathematical modelling of primary production in Green Bay (Lake Michigan, USA), a phosphorus-and light-limited system

Application of mathematical models in the design and evaluation of lake restoration programmes must include due consideration of three basic concepts of model development; 1) that the model framework is appropriately matched to the intended management use, 2) that selection of the proper degree of model complexity is fundamental to the achievement of model credibility and 3) that field and laboratory studies must be designed and interpreted with the aid of the model to insure development of a comprehensive, integrated tool.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/41726/1/10452_2005_Article_BF02291163.pd

Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment

Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16-23 days in 2050 and 18-39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN 1

One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady-state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74032/1/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03714.x.pd

Simulation techniques for cosmological simulations

Modern cosmological observations allow us to study in great detail the evolution and history of the large scale structure hierarchy. The fundamental problem of accurate constraints on the cosmological parameters, within a given cosmological model, requires precise modelling of the observed structure. In this paper we briefly review the current most effective techniques of large scale structure simulations, emphasising both their advantages and shortcomings. Starting with basics of the direct N-body simulations appropriate to modelling cold dark matter evolution, we then discuss the direct-sum technique GRAPE, particle-mesh (PM) and hybrid methods, combining the PM and the tree algorithms. Simulations of baryonic matter in the Universe often use hydrodynamic codes based on both particle methods that discretise mass, and grid-based methods. We briefly describe Eulerian grid methods, and also some variants of Lagrangian smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) methods.Comment: 42 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews, special issue "Clusters of galaxies: beyond the thermal view", Editor J.S. Kaastra, Chapter 12; work done by an international team at the International Space Science Institute (ISSI), Bern, organised by J.S. Kaastra, A.M. Bykov, S. Schindler & J.A.M. Bleeke

Development of a planar multi-body model of the human knee joint

The aim of this work is to develop a dynamic model for the biological human knee joint. The model is formulated in the framework of multibody systems methodologies, as a system of two bodies, the femur and the tibia. For the purpose of describing the formulation, the relative motion of the tibia with respect to the femur is considered. Due to their higher stiffness compared to that of the articular cartilages, the femur and tibia are considered as rigid bodies. The femur and tibia cartilages are considered to be deformable structures with specific material characteristics. The rotation and gliding motions of the tibia relative to the femur can not be modeled with any conventional kinematic joint, but rather in terms of the action of the knee ligaments and potential contact between the bones. Based on medical imaging techniques, the femur and tibia profiles in the sagittal plane are extracted and used to define the interface geometric conditions for contact. When a contact is detected, a continuous non-linear contact force law is applied which calculates the contact forces developed at the interface as a function of the relative indentation between the two bodies. The four basic cruciate and collateral ligaments present in the knee are also taken into account in the proposed knee joint model, which are modeled as non-linear elastic springs. The forces produced in the ligaments, together with the contact forces, are introduced into the system’s equations of motion as external forces. In addition, an external force is applied on the center of mass of the tibia, in order to actuate the system mimicking a normal gait motion. Finally, numerical results obtained from computational simulations are used to address the assumptions and procedures adopted in this study.Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT